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Asymmetric Co-integration for the MINT in Testing for Purchasing Power Parity Theory

Niri Martha Choji and Siok Kun Sek

Pertanika Journal of Social Science and Humanities, Volume 27, Issue 1, March 2019

Keywords: Asymmetric adjustment, breakdates threshold regression, Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) model, purchasing power parity, Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model

Published on: 25 Mar 2019

This paper inspects if the purchasing power parity (PPP) exists with asymmetric adjustment in the MINT (Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) countries. An asymmetric co-integration approach was conducted to test for the presence of long-run PPP in the MINT nations by utilizing the threshold co-integration tests (TAR and MTAR) of Enders and Siklos. By employing monthly data from 2003 to 2016, results of the threshold co-integration tests (using the TAR model) revealed proof of long-run purchasing power parity accompanied by an asymmetric adjustment in Nigeria and Turkey but not in Mexico and Indonesia. According to the asymmetric error correction model for Nigeria, negative deviations from PPP are terminated more rapidly than positive deviations in attaining the purchasing power parity. However, in Turkey, positive deviations are terminated more quickly than negative deviations. The results of the long-run estimates generally show that most of the coefficients are statistically significant indicating that a unit increase in the domestic price (LCPI) results in a depreciation of some units in the nominal exchange rates, and a unit increase in the foreign price (LCPIUS) brings about an appreciation of some units in nominal exchange rates, for both Nigeria and Turkey. In Nigeria and Turkey, we experience both exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Consequently, depreciation will cause exports to be cheaper, imports very expensive, and cause inflation to increase in Nigeria and Turkey. Nonetheless, appreciation of the exchange rate will cause exports to be more expensive, imports cheaper and hence, reduce inflation in Nigeria and Turkey.

ISSN 0128-7702

e-ISSN 2231-8534

Article ID

JSSH-2294-2017

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