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Impact Assessment of Climate Change in Iran using LARS-WG Model

Raheleh Farzanmanesh, Ahmad Makmom Abdullah, Alireza Shakiba and Jamil Amanollahi

Pertanika Journal of Tropical Agricultural Science, Volume 20, Issue 2, July 2012

Keywords: Climate change, weather generator, LARS-WG, GCM

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Iran is situated in a very diverse environmental area. The climate of the region is varied and influencedby different patterns. In order to best describe the expected climate change impacts for the region,climate change scenarios and climate variables must be developed on a regional, or even site-specific,scale. The weather generator is one of the valid downscaling methods. In the current study, LARSWG(a weather generator) and the outputs from ECHO-G for present climate, as well as future timeslice of 2010-2039 based on A1 scenario, were used to evaluate LARS-WG as a tool at 13 synopticstations located in the north and northeast parts of Iran. The results obtained in this study illustratethat LARS-WG has a reasonable capability of simulating the minimum and maximum temperaturesand precipitation. In addition, the results showed that the mean precipitation decreased in Semnan, thesouth of Khorasan and Golestan. Meanwhile, the mean temperature during 2010-2039 would increaseby 0.5°C, especially in the cold season.

ISSN 1511-3701

e-ISSN 2231-8542

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